AUD/USD analysis 12 July 2011
Undermined by stronger investor risk aversion, Australian government's carbon tax proposal, worries over China's economic slowdown as Beijing continues to tighten policy to combat inflation; softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 2.93 yesterday at 340.62); Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD losses tempered by AUD-USD interest rate differential, sovereign demand for Aussie. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia June NAB business survey. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics have turned bearish at overbought. Support at 1.0627 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0515 (June 29 low), then 1.0494 (100-day moving average) and 1.0431 (June 28 low). Resistance at 1.0723 (hourly chart), then at 1.0755 (yesterday's high) and 1.0788-1.0790 (Friday's high-July 1 reaction high); breach expose upside to 1.0888 (May 11 reaction high), then 1.1011 (29-year high set May 2).
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